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Relegation Sunday Scenarios – Part 2

By | 23rd May 2009

boroWhile Sunderland and Hull are currently sitting above the relegation zone, Newcastle and Middlesbrough are occupying the final two relegation spots. Here’s how things stack up for the two sides:

18. Newcastle United

Newcastle appeared to be out of trouble a few weeks ago following Hull’s bad turn in form, but the Magpies are once again in the drop zone. Newcastle face a tricky away tie against Aston Villa, who, according to Brad Friedel, are looking to gun down Everton for that fifth spot.

A win will… save Newcastle! Well, most likely. If Newcastle win, the only way for them to not go up is if both Hull City and Sunderland win. If either Hull or Sunderland (or both) draw or lose, three points for Newcastle will keep them in the Premier League.

A draw will… If Newcastle draw, things will get extremely uncomfortable for Newcastle fans. Newcastle has a better goal difference than Hull, but sit one point behind the Tigers. If Newcastle draw, they will need Hull to lose against Manchester United to stay up. A draw puts Sunderland out of reach, so everything would depend on Hull’s result – a win or a draw for Hull coupled with a Newcastle draw sends Alan Shearer’s team into the Championship.

A loss will… give Newcastle no hope of staying in the Premier League. Yes, that’s right – if Newcastle United lose at Villa Park to Aston Villa then they will be playing in the Coca Cola Championship next season. Stunning!

The bottom line. Newcastle’s fate resides with Hull City. Newcastle must get a better result against Villa than Hull City gets against Manchester United.

19. Middlesbrough

The club in the most dire position and the club most likely to join West Bromwich Albion in next season’s Championship is Boro. Lucky for Gareth Southgate, at least Boro have the easiest final day fixture this season. They take on West Ham at Upton Park tomorrow as they fight for their Premier League lives.

A win will… Three points isn’t even enough to save Middlesbrough from relegation. Boro need to win – and win big. Hull City is three points ahead of Boro with a goal difference that is four better. Boro need Hull to lose and they need to make up that four goal goal difference. The likeliest way of doing this is for Boro to win by two and Hull to lose by two. Sounds easy, right? No, because then Boro would still go down based on the goals for column (they’ve scored twelve less goals than Hull this season). So Boro in essence need to win, Hull need to lose, and the goal difference between the two needs to swing five  goals in Boro’s favor. If Hull draw or win, Boro’s season is done.

A draw will… pit Boro against the likes of Bristol City and Derby County next season. Gareth Southgate and his men will be well aware that even a draw sends them down, regardless of other results. You can bet your bottom dollar that they’ll be going for the win.

A loss will… pit Boro against the likes of Barnsley and Plymouth Argyle next season. Just like a draw, if Boro lose then they’re guaranteed a spot in next season’s Championship. Even more humorous, if Boro lose and West Brom win, Boro will finish bottom of the table.

The bottom line. If Hull even pick up a point against a weakened Manchester United team, we’ll be seeing even more empty seats at the Riverside next season. Who wants to go see Championship football? Boro must win and must score plenty of goals to even think about catching Hull. Boro fans must also cheer for United with all of their hearts tomorrow.

It appears it will be Boro and Newcastle joining West Brom next season, but leave your stellar predictions below!

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